Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee-Carter Model.

This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee-Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20-54 for men and 20-64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0-4 years for both sexes.

[The effect of medical economic factors on common morbidity of population of the Republic of Bashkortostan].

The assessment was applied to degree of impact of medical social factors on morbidity of total population according appealability in the Republic of Bashkortostan, considering their spatial temporal distribution. The database of the Federal Information Fund for Social and Hygienic Monitoring (Automated Information System "Social and Hygienic Monitoring") of the Department of Rospotrebnadzor and data of official statistical forms of the Territorial Board of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Republic of Bashkortostan were used as source material for the study. The data was applied in case of presence of combination of observations on 54 municipalities and 8 urban okrugs in the dynamics for 2000-2015. The panel regression analysis of was applied as research tool. The results of modeling can be considered in developing target programs of reducing morbidity in particular municipality of the region.

[The trends in disability of adult and children population of the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2000-2015].

The article considers dynamics and main indices of primary and total disability of adult and children population in the regions in 2005-2015 as compared to similar indices of the Russian Federation on the basis of the data of Medical Informational Analytical Center of the Ministry of Health Care of the Republic of Bashkortostan, the territorial Agency of Federal Service of State statistics of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The characteristics of indices and their dynamics, structure of leading causes of disability of adult and children population and differences in levels of disability were established. The established tendencies of dynamics of indices of disability in the Republic of Bashkortostan can be taken as a principle in development of programs of prevention of disability and rehabilitation of disable individuals.

[The dynamics of mortality because of diseases of blood circulation system in the regions of the Republic of Bashkortostan].

The article presents analysis of level, dynamics and structure of mortality of diseases of blood circulation system in the regions of the Republic of Bashkortostan according to data of the Territorial board of Federal service of state statistics in the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2002-2012 (table C-51). The differences are established in the levels of mortality as compared with the Republic ofBashkortostan and the Russian Federation. Despite of outlined tendency of decreasing of levels of mortality because of the given cause, it continues to be sufficiently high and requires further investigation of all its aspects.

[EVALUATION OF THE AIR POLLUTION HEALTH RISK FOR THE POPULATION OF THE CITY OF UFA].

There are presented results of the calculation of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks due to the impact of chemical air pollutants for the human health of a large industrial city. Maximal levels of carcinogenic hazards under inhalation route of substances from the air were established to be noted on gasoline, manganese, sulfur dioxide, copper oxide, formaldehyde. In the formation of carcinogenic risk the greatest contribution is made by chromium, gasoline, formaldehyde, benzol. The risk of non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects for the population of the city continues to remain to be high, that requires the development and implementation of planned recreational measures.

[The dynamics of mortality of population of able-bodied age in the Republic of Bashkortostan].

The article analyzes data of state statistics concerning mortality of able-bodied population (table C51) in the regions of the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2002-201. The structure of main causes of death is analyzed. The comparative analysis of received data and analogous indicators in the Republic of Bashkortostan and Russia was carried out. The differences in levels of mortality per regions with different degree of economic development and ecological pollution were demonstrated. The article emphasizes high indicators of mortality of population of able-bodied age in particular regions as compared with corresponding republican and national indicators of mortality. The interregional heterogeneity of indicators of mortality of population of able-bodied age demonstrates a genuine necessity of further intensification of research in identification and qualitative evaluation of health risk factors with following implementation of target preventive programs.

[The morbidity of malignant neoplasms in industrial metropolis].

The territorial characteristics of malignant neoplasms propagation was analyzed to reveal the risk factors concerning the population oncological morbidity in the City of Ufa. The data of accounting reporting documentation of the Bashkir republican oncological dispenser from 2000 to 2008 was used for analysis. The study revealed that in males and females the level of morbidity of oncological neoplasms is higher as compared with indicator's national level and continues to increase steadily factually in all oncological forms of this pathology.

[The dynamics of mortality of children population of city with high anthropogenic load].

The article presents quantitative and qualitative evaluation of mortality of children population in large industrial city with developed petrochemical industry on the basis of average long-term data (2000-2010) of Bashkortostanstat, Rosstat, annual reports of ministry of health of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The causes of children mortality are analyzed. The comparative evaluation of dynamics of mortality of children in Ufa with analogous indicators in the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Russian Federation is made. The high indicators of still birth, neonatal mortality in comparison with corresponding indicators in the Republic of Bashkortostan and average data in the Russian Federation. The obtained data dictates the necessity in further elaboration of studies of identification and qualitative evaluation of health risk factors with purpose to scientifically substantiate activities in health promotion of children population.

[The dynamics of morbidity and mortality of malignant neoplasms in population of the Republic of Bashkortostan].

The epidemiologic analysis of morbidity and mortality of malignant neoplasms of population of the Republic of Bashkortostan was made. The official oncological statistics of average long-term data of 2000-2008 was used. The trend of increase of oncological neoplasms morbidity was established both in males (up to 6.9%) and females (up to 12.3%) and slight decrease of mortality level (on 5.7%). The structure of oncological morbidity of male population has such focal localizations as lung, stomach, skin, prostate, rectum and colon. In oncological morbidity of women larger part has cancer of breast, skin (with melanoma), stomach, uterine body, cervix and ovaries. The increase of mortality indicators in 2000-2008 was noted concerning skin melanoma (32.4%), colon cancer (27.2%), prostate cancer (23.1%), leukemia (16.5%), breast cancer (13.6%) and rectum cancer (9.6%). The revealed characteristics of neoplasms morbidity and mortality on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan are to be taken into account in the prospective planning of curative preventive activities and development of oncological care to this category of patients.

[The dynamics of morbidity of population of the city of Ufa].

The article deals with analysis of general and primary morbidity of population of Ufa in all age groups according the data of form N 12 of state statistical supervision "The information of number of diseases registered in patients residing in the district of medical institution support" of Minzdrav of Republic of Bashkortostan in 2000-2008. It is established that during the mentioned period of time, an increase occurred of general and primary morbidity. The particular classes of diseases and age groups are detected which are characterized by a significant increase of indicators of morbidity.

[Morbidity parameters in mining industry workers of Southern Urals].

The authors presented parameters of transitory disablement morbidity, occupational morbidity for workers in two mining enterprises (Bashkortostan Republic), calculated integral parameter of disablement.

[A priori occupational health risk for workers of ore mining and processing enterprise].

The authors present hygienic evaluation of work conditions, calculate dust loads and risk of stochastic effects in workers of ore mining and processing enterprise. Integral evaluation of the work conditions, according to hygienic criteria, by totality of acting occupational hazards, corresponds to class 3.1-3.4.

[Morbidity among ore-dressing and processing enterprise workers, according to thorough medical examination results].

The authors analyzed materials of thorough medical examinations among ore-dressing and processing enterprise workers. All studied workers appeared to have increased risk of locomotor diseases and connective tissue disorders, ailments of respiratory tract, nervous system, ENT organs, digestive system, blood.

[Evaluating occupational risks for health disorders in workers of extraction and processing industry].

Analysis of thorough medical examinations with applied method assessing occupational health risks in ore-dressing and processing enterprise workers revealed increased risk of locomotory and nervous system disorders, diseases of respiratory tract (chronic bronchitis), ear and mastoid process, digestive system (peptic ulcer of stomach and duodenum), blood system, eyes (Uchaly town, Bashkortostan Republic). The data obtained prove high level of occupational influence of these diseases formation.

[Chemical hair analysis in ore-dressing and processing plant workers].

The article presents results of studies covering elements content of hair and mineral bone density among workers engaged into Utchalinsky ore-dressing and processing enterprise (Utchaly town, Bashkortostan Republic) and among residents of copper-zinc geochemical province. Finding is dysbalance between levels of essential and toxic elements in hair, that is due to environmental and occupational factors. Analysis of elements homeostasis and mineral bone density could be recommended for early diagnosis of osteoporosis.

[The dynamics of the oncological mortality in the Republic of Bashkortostan].

The analysis of the dynamics of the oncological mortality in the Republic of Bashkortostan from 1989 to 2005 was carried out. It is revealed that since 1992 the oncological mortality occupies the third position in the structure of population morbidity (10.4-14%). The minor trend to the increase of this mortality rate from 142.1 to 149.8 per 100,000 of population is revealed. In the structure of the oncological mortality, the most percent falls on the tumors of trachea, bronchi and lung (18.1-23.2%), stomach (13.2-18.5%), mammary gland (11.9-18.9%), colon (2.5-6.4%), rectum (4.7-6.2%), esophagus (4.0-7.4%) and leukemia (1.9-3.1%). The decrease of the occurrence rate of the cancer of stomach (on 23.2%), the cancer of esophagus (on 38.3%), the respiratory organs (on 6.9%) and the leukemia (on 4.5%). The major increase of mortality during the last 17 years was noted for such pathological conditions as the cancer of colon (on 181.6%), the cancer of the organs of urogenital system (on 53.4%), the cancer of prostate gland (116.8%) and mammary gland (on 47.6%). The peak rate of oncological mortality falls on the age of 70 years and older. The oncological mortality of the overall population has lower levels in comparison with average national indicators.